WASHINGTON D.C., February 9, 2007 – Government Futures, a Web 2.0 analysis and consulting firm that taps the collective intelligence of government and industry participants to solve tough problems in the federal technology and services sector, today announced that its new “Bet the Future” prediction market successfully calculated the size of the 2008 Federal IT budget request and the Super Bowl winner. The prediction market accurately forecast that the Indianapolis Colts would win the Super Bowl, and that the increase in the President’s 2008 federal IT budget request would be less than 5% over FY ’07 request. The actual lift was 3%.
“The principles and processes of a prediction market, even with a small set of participants, can be successfully applied to many tough questions,“ said Bruce McConnell, Government Future’s president, whose team launched the new prediction market ten days ago as part of a growing collective intelligence tool box that also includes micro polls, focus groups, interviews, blogs, and surveys. “Prediction markets are still open on other topics, including some that relate to our newest focus, the future structure of the federal IT and professional services industry.” Click here to start trading. Participation is free, and “top traders” can win recognition and rewards.
Wisdom of Crowds: government employees are a valuable brain trust
“One definition of the wisdom of crowds is ‘the many are smarter than the few,’” said Margaret Anderson, co-founder of Government Futures. “Federal employees and contractors, who have their fingers on the pulse of what is going on in the agencies, are a valuable brain trust. Collective intelligence tools can help them tap the wisdom of their unknown counterparts in other organizations for an actionable solution to a tough problem they may be trying to solve.” Anderson also said Government Futures helps people think about where they want the government mission-performance environment to be three to five years from now, and gives them platforms – like prediction markets – to help shape the future.
Prediction markets operate like a stock market, with prices signaling information about the predicted outcome. Traders can make profits when prices rise or fall. Due to regulatory barriers, real money is not used.
About Government Futures
Government Futures is a Web 2.0
analysis and consulting firm that taps collective intelligence
to help decision makers in the government-industry community
understand and shape the future of the federal marketplace,
and improve their position in it. Founded by community
veterans Bruce McConnell and Margaret Anderson, and aided
by a council of seasoned advisers, the company enables
the community to collaborate and develop its own collective
intelligence. Government Futures advises companies
and other organizations in the application of these results.
For more information, or to participate in the community,
please visit www.governmentfutures.com.
CONTACTS:
Margaret Anderson, Co-Founder
Government Futures
1301 K St. NW – Suite 450 West
Washington, DC 20005
anderson@governmentfutures.com
703-573-0134
http://www.governmentfutures.com
Media Contact:
Julie Keyser-Squires, APR
Softscribe Inc.
julie@softscribeinc.com
404-256-5512
http://www.softscribeinc.com
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